Decadal Predictions Data set - ClimAfrica WP2

A Decadal prediction data set of several atmospheric and oceanic variables is here presented for climate studies and comparisons. Predictions are performed one time every 5 years, with start date on Nov 1st, and integrated for twenty years. Each prediction is constituted of three ensemble members to have a minimal sample of the uncertainty on the initial conditions. The sampled variables are: The sampled variables are:

- Specific Humidity (Q)

- Relative Humidity (RH)

- Temperature (T)

- Zonal Wind (U)

- Meridional Wind (V)

- Surface temperature (surf_temp)

- Zonal Wind at 10m (u10)

- Meridional Wind at 10m (v10).

The decadal predictions data are available for download on demand only. Please contact Andrea Borrelli at andrea.borrelli@cmcc.it to place your request.

This data set has been produced in the framework of the "Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations (ClimAfrica)" project, Work Package 2 (WP2). More information on ClimAfrica project is provided in the Supplemental Information section of this metadata.

Date (Creation): 2013-09-12

Date (Revision): 2012-09-30

Edition: First

Presentation form: Digital map

Purpose: WP2 (Modelling seasonal to decadal climate predictions) focused on SSA climate predictability and on the improvement of climate prediction models by virtue of developments in their land surface initialization/representation. The improvement of the prediction of climate over SSA is considered from the perspective of both the large-global scale (i.e.: global coupled climate dynamics modelling) and the small-local scale (i.e.: mesoscale and statistical modelling/downscaling).

Seasonal retrospective forecast for 22 years (1989-2010). Four six-month-forecasts per year, start dates 1st Feb, 1st May, 1st Aug, 1st Nov.

Decadal predictions.

Twenty-year-simulations, start dates 1990-1995-2000-2005-2010, November 1st. Simulations were performed by means of a global climate model initialized with the best observational products of ocean, land and atmosphere.

Outputs provided:

- Surface temperature;

- Precipitation;

- Heat fluxes;

- Winds, etc.

Status: Completed

Originator

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Andrea Borrelli ( Researcher )

Viale Aldo Moro, 44 , Bologna , 40127 , Italy

Maintenance and update frequency: As needed

Theme

climate
forecast
temperature
humidity
wind
WP2
ClimAfrica
Tag_climafrica

Place

Africa

Access constraints: Copyright

Spatial representation type: Grid

Distance: 190 Km

Metadata language: English

Character set: UTF8

Topic category

Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere

Begin date: 1990-01-01

End date: 2010-12-31

Begin date: 1995-01-01

End date: 2015-12-31

Begin date: 2000-01-01

End date: 2020-12-31

Begin date: 2005-12-31

End date: 2025-12-31

Begin date: 2010-01-01

End date: 2030-12-31

Supplemental Information: ClimAfrica was an international project funded by European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme (FP7) for the period 2010-2014. The ClimAfrica consortium was formed by 18 institutions, 9 from Europe, 8 from Africa, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO).

ClimAfrica was conceived to respond to the urgent international need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools and methodologies to better understand and predict climate change, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and develop the correct adaptation strategies. Africa is probably the most vulnerable continent to climate change and climate variability and shows diverse range of agro-ecological and geographical features. Thus the impacts of climate change can be very high and can greatly differ across the continent, and even within countries.

The project focused on the following specific objectives:

1. Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to SSA;

2. Assess climate impacts in key sectors of SSA livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture;

3. Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate;

4. Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies, focused on local needs;

5 Develop a new concept of 10 years monitoring and forecasting warning system, useful for food security, risk management and civil protection in SSA;

6. Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in SSA and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.

The work of ClimAfrica project was broken down into the following work packages (WPs) closely connected. All the activities described in WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4, WP5 consider the domain of the entire South Sahara Africa region. Only WP6 has a country specific (watershed) spatial scale where models validation and detailed processes analysis are carried out.